Sarah Palin As Spoiler

from daralibrarians flickr photostream

from daralibrarian's flickr photostream

This election makes my head hurt.  So lets talk about the next one!

Everyone is talking about Sarah Palin, and whether she’s going to run for President in 2012.  I’ll go ahead and say it’s a near guarantee: either she’ll lose, or McCain will die in office, but either way this woman is on or near the ballot in 4 years (or, judging by this election, in about 2 years, when the primaries start, and we all want to die again).   New York Magazine says she’ll be the next Reagan, firing up the base and revitalizing the GOP.

Like Carter, Obama will be inheriting a country backlashing from a wildly unpopular Republican President, and he might face a re-organized GOP freed of the ideological baggage picked up over the last 8 years.  But I don’t think Palin has the wherewithal to do as Reagan did and hold the GOP coalition together – rather, I think she’s a fringe/polarizing figure akin to Ron Paul, able to mobilize a small segment of the voter base to a very particular cause.  I think she’ll run a campaign to the cultural right of the eventual GOP candidate, and leave the party for an independent run with someone like Mike “God has surprises in store” Huckabee.  I think she’s a little too self interested and too ideological to put up with a mainstream party run for the whole course of an election cycle, and will bust out her own party when the time comes. Now let us pray…


One response to “Sarah Palin As Spoiler

  1. Why McCain Will Be Defeated – From New Sarah Palin For Pres in 2012 Website

    “Start Today For Real Conservative Victory Within the GOP in 2010/12”

    Read the short essay at

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